Probing Beneath the Waves to Understand Hazards from New Zealand's Volcanic Islands

Aotearoa New Zealand's island volcanoes, Whakaari and Tuhua, directly threaten more than 1.5 million New Zealanders and a multibillion-dollar economy through multiple severe, volcanic and non-volcanic hazards; pyroclastic flow, ashfall, flank collapse and tsunami. Appropriate mitigative actions can only be implemented if the magnitude of their impact and likelihood of occurrence can be quantified.  

A new 5 year research programme, Beneath the Waves will leverage international expertise to create three-dimensional multi-physics models of volcano structure including magma locations, hydrothermal systems, and areas of weak and strong rock. The large underwater component makes these tasks highly challenging, requiring a multi-disciplinary approach to exploring the anatomy of Whakaari and Tuhua volcanoes. We will further simulate the likelihoods of pyroclastic flow, ashfall and tsunami, analyse their impacts and integrate results into next generation probabilistic forecasts and alerting. Simulations with New Zealand’s PELE, large-scale eruption simulator will advance theoretical models of volcanic and non-volcanic mass flows and their ability to generate tsunami, while probabilistic ashfall models calibrated with offshore tephra cores quantify risk to communities. 

To ensure maximum uptake of science results our programme is linked with diverse endusers to ensure relevance for them. Indigenous Māori, council and emergency management partners will both shape and use research outputs in sectoral plans, programmes and policies. Industry user groups ensure tailored advice reaches relevant sectors. Probabilistic forecasts of hazard likelihood for inform existing monitoring efforts through GeoNet. Partnership with existing research outreach agencies accelerates community engagement and novel “serious-games” target schools and difficult-to-reach audiences. Communicating island “state of health” through media, internet and the international science community ensures global uptake of our research for benefit of all communities.